Denver is equally dreadful defensively against the pass and the run, while Buffalo is fairly balanced. In that case, it also makes sense to correlate your tiebreaker and spread picks - since you need to get both right to have a chance. That is unless you're also picking this game for one of your spread picks. For that reason, shaving 50-90 yards or so off this guess produces a reasonable number, while avoiding the most popular answers. I'd speculate that the typical guesses will land in the higher end of the likely range thanks to optimism about the Bills' explosive offense as well as undeserved faith in the Broncos' passing attack. To maximize EV, we need to balance likelihood of getting the number right against how frequently that number will be guessed - a 5% chance at taking first place yourself beats a 20% chance of sharing it 10 ways. Anyone could arrive at - or near - that 481 figure by leveraging Koerner's projections, player props or any number of methods. We aren't just trying to come up with the most accurate guess.
